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Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population
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Sangwoo Park, Yong-Giun Kim, Soe Hee Ann, Young-Rak Cho, Shin-Jae Kim, Seungbong Han, Gyung-Min Park
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Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023052. Published online May 12, 2023
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023052
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 Abstract
Summary
 PDF Supplementary Material
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Proper risk assessment is important for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, no validated risk prediction tools are currently in use in Korea. This study sought to develop a 10-year risk prediction model for incident ASCVD.
METHODS Using the National Sample Cohort of Korea, 325,934 subjects aged 20-80 years without previous ASCVD were enrolled. ASCVD was defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The Korean atherosclerotic cardiovas cular disease risk prediction (K-CVD) model was developed separately for men and women using the development dataset and validated in the validation dataset. Furthermore, the model performance was compared with the Framingham risk score (FRS) and pooled cohort equation (PCE).
RESULTS Over 10 years of follow-up, 4,367 ASCVD events occurred in the overall population. The predictors of ASCVD included in the model were age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, lipid profiles, urine protein, and lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering treatment. The K-CVD model had good discrimination and strong calibration in the validation dataset (time-dependent area under the curve=0.846; 95% confidence interval, 0.828 to 0.864; calibration χ<sup>2</sup>=4.73, goodness-of-fit p=0.32). Compared with our model, both FRS and PCE showed worse calibration, overestimating ASCVD risk in the Korean population.
CONCLUSIONS Through a nationwide cohort, we developed a model for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction in a contemporary Korean population. The K-CVD model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in Koreans. This population-based risk prediction tool would help to appropriately identify high-risk individuals and provide preventive interventions in the Korean population.
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Summary
Korean summary
국민건강보험공단 표본 코호트를 이용하여, 한국인 인구에서 10년 죽상경화성 심혈관질환 위험 예측 (K-CVD) 모델을 개발하였다.
한국인 인구집단을 기반으로 개발된 K-CVD 모델은 한국 인구집단에서 판별력과 교정력 측면에서 우수한 성능을 보여주었다.
K-CVD 모델은 한국인 집단에서 심혈관질환의 고위험군을 적절하게 식별하고, 예방적 중재를 시행하는데 있어 도움이 될 것으로 생각된다.
Key Message
Using a nationwide cohort, the Korean ASCVD risk prediction (K-CVD) model was developed for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction.
The K-CVD model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in a contemporary Korean population.
This population-based risk prediction tool would help to appropriately identify high-risk individuals and provide preventive interventions in the Korean population.
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